Volynets and Valentova close the week in Philadelphia with the title on the line, on indoor hard in a compact arena. The market makes the 19-year-old Czech a fairly clear favourite, mostly on ranking and on her win over the American in Miami in the spring. The venue and the opponent suggest something far tighter than that.
One week, two very different routes to the final
Valentova came through Tian, Collins and Grabner, and several of those sets ended 6-1. Her method is straightforward: take the first ball after the serve and end the point inside three shots, which works for exactly as long as the opponent stops returning.
Volynets has won nothing by force this week. In the semifinal against Selekhmetyeva she recovered from a heavy deficit in the second set and saved six set points in the tiebreak, which is a different kind of evidence than a one-sided scoreline.
Where an uneven first serve meets a stubborn returner
Valentova's first serve has been landing erratically all week, double faults included, and nobody in Philadelphia has punished it yet. The longer rallies are also where her errors surface, since she plays close to the lines by design.
Her recent record in tight endings is the other half of the case: seven unconverted match points against Svitolina in Cincinnati, and a service game dropped at 5-3 in Prague. Volynets has spent the week passing precisely that test, and she will do it here with the room behind her. At 2.377 the American looks underpriced.
Prediction: Volynets to win, odds 2.377
