Anastasia Potapova and Tereza Valentova open the US Open in the first round on Tuesday at 15:00 UTC, on a hard court that rewards whoever strikes first. Neither of them is a natural defender. The question is which one arrives in a state to attack.
One has played too much, the other not enough
Potapova's North American swing produced two clean wins — 6-3 6-3 over Venus Williams, 6-4 6-2 against Elena Gabriela Ruse — and three defeats that barely lasted an hour. Elina Svitolina beat her 1-6 1-6, and Sloane Stephens won 6-2 6-4 against a serve that kept breaking down. She then withdrew from Monterrey with a back complaint and has not played a match since.
Valentova reached the Philadelphia final and lost it to Katie Volynets, ranked 91, taking an off-court medical timeout in the second set. Her route there ran through opponents outside the top 90. The last time she met an elite mover, Svitolina saved seven match points and took the decider.
The cost of a two-day turnaround
To beat this handicap, Valentova needs a tidy 6-3 6-2 sort of win over a top-25 ball-striker roughly 48 hours after a final that ran 1:46. She has needed tiebreaks and third sets against far more modest opposition all summer.
The risk on Potapova's side is genuine: her errors come in clusters, and an untested back makes an early break easier to compound. She is also rested, more experienced at this stage, and takes the ball early enough to deny Valentova her forehand rhythm. Three and a half games of cover looks generous.
Prediction: Potapova +3.5 games, odds 1.94
