Jasmine Paolini and Lucrezia Stefanini meet in the second round of the US Open on Wednesday at 15:00 UTC, an all-Italian tie between two players who have known each other since childhood. Paolini is the higher-ranked player by some distance. The open question is how much of her tennis she has brought back with her.
Two Tuscans arriving from opposite directions
Paolini skipped the entire North American swing with a left-foot problem and then needed three sets to survive Veronika Erjavec 6-3 3-6 6-4. She admitted afterwards that she felt too nervous, and her movement looked heavy every time Erjavec produced a short angle or a drop shot.
Stefanini has been on site considerably longer. Four wins through qualifying were followed by a 6-3 4-6 6-1 defeat of Dayana Yastremska, a match she lost the thread of and then reclaimed, finishing physically stronger. Cincinnati and Marie Bouzkova showed her ceiling; the deep, low-risk hitting through the middle shows her method.
Why the margin is the vulnerable number
Covering a 3.5-game line requires a straight-sets win with a clear cushion, and the opener offered no evidence of that. Paolini led 4-1 in the decider, surrendered the break, restored it, then was broken again while trying to serve the match out.
Stefanini's whole identity is lengthening rallies and lengthening matches. Paolini has won both previous meetings and remains the likelier winner, but a three-set win, a tight two-setter or any Stefanini upset all land on the same side of this line.
Prediction: Stefanini +3.5 games, odds 2.017
