Pegula faces Rakhimova in Toronto on Thursday, in the American's second scheduled slot of the day's programme and her third consecutive day on a match court. The market treats it as a formality, pricing Pegula at 1.14 and asking her to cover a handicap of -6.5 games. That second number is the one worth examining.
Two very different weeks arriving at the same court
Pegula came here straight from a final in Washington, travelled, and then needed a two-hour comeback on Wednesday to stay in the draw. Her recent pattern is consistent and inconvenient for a heavy handicap: she spends a full set locating depth and timing, and has been regularly handing over the opener before her groundstrokes settle.
Rakhimova arrives rested and holding wins over Williams and Siniakova. Her tennis is deliberately slow-burning, built on long service games and physical rallies, and a lost set does not end her afternoon. Raducanu showed the antidote by taking the ball early and changing direction, and Pegula owns that skill too, which is why the outright price offers nothing.
Six and a half games is a lot to ask on day three
Pegula should still win. The realistic route, though, runs through a scrappy opening set, a break exchanged late, and a scoreline that stays inside six games or stretches to a decider.
Rakhimova does not need the upset to pay. She needs one set, or simply tight finishes, and at 1.74 that is generous.
Prediction: Rakhimova +6.5 games, odds 1.74
