Jessica Pegula meets Sorana Cirstea on home hard courts as the clear favourite, having reached this stage without spending much: Waltert and Navarro were dealt with, neither caused real trouble. The interesting part is the pricing, where a five-game blowout sits almost level with a tight match.
Comfortable wins, narrow scorelines
Pegula's summer has been productive without ever being emphatic. She needed 7-5 to get past Navarro, beat Schneider 7-5 6-4, started slowly against Frech, then lost a deciding set to Eala in the Washington final and went out to Schneider in Toronto. She wins by absorbing pace and redirecting it, not by flattening people.
Cirstea, in her final season, is playing her best tennis in years and keeps troubling players from the top of the rankings. Against Kalinskaya she lost the opening set, shortened the rallies, raised her return quality and was ahead when her opponent retired after a match broken up by rain. Her one genuine problem is physical: she withdrew from the doubles citing an abdominal muscle, which touches both her serve and her forehand rotation.
Where four and a half games actually sit
The likely shape is a first set decided by one break and a second in which Pegula's discipline tells. Scorelines of 4-6 3-6 or 6-7 4-6 are the natural landing spots, and all of them clear the handicap.
The risk is honest enough: if the abdominal issue flares, rallies shorten, errors multiply and the match ends 6-3 6-2 or earlier. That scenario justifies moderate confidence, not a change of side.
Prediction: Cirstea +4.5 games, odds 1.82
