Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula meet in the final, and the ball is already making a different sound off each racquet. Gauff has walked through the closing rounds without spending much; Pegula has crawled through hers. That gap in mileage is the whole story here.
One player cruising, one player surviving
Gauff started the week untidy and then found her rhythm. The forehand stopped chasing winners on every second ball, the feet took over, and the last rounds went by fast and clean. She wins now with weight and patience rather than fireworks, and that same approach flipped their most recent meeting.
Pegula's route was a grind: three consecutive three-setters, with the battles against Anisimova and Swiatek draining more than they gave back. She takes the ball early and stays ice-cold in the tight moments, but there was also discomfort on serve along the way. Against a returner who stands in and swings, a slightly softer second delivery is a leak that widens.
Where the rallies will start to tilt
Expect long exchanges, corner-to-corner defence and few free points. Gauff should stretch the rallies deliberately, lean on Pegula's movement and hunt that second ball, letting the physical edge creep in through the middle of the sets.
Their history is close enough that a rout feels wrong, yet the fresher, cleaner player is priced too generously. The value sits with Gauff.
Prediction: Gauff to win, odds 1.69
